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Credit and Finance Risk Predictive Modeling & Management
Credit risk analysis (finance risk analysis, loan default risk analysis) and credit risk management is important to financial institutions which provide loans to businesses and individuals. Credit can occur for various reasons: bank mortgages (or home loans), motor vehicle purchase finances, credit card purchases, installment purchases, and so on. Credit loans and finances have risk of being defaulted or delinquented. To understand risk levels of credit users, credit providers normally collect vast amount of information on borrowers. Statistical predictive analytic techniques can be used to analyze or to determine risk levels involved on credits, finances, and loans, i.e., default risk levels. Credit risk predictive modeling is discussed here.
Why internal credit scoring?
Personal credit scores are normally computed from information available in credit reports collected by external credit bureaus and ratings agencies. Credit scores may indicate personal financial history and current situation. However, it does not tell you exactly what constitutes a "good" score from a "bad" score. More specifically, it does not tell you the level of risk for the lending you may be considering. Internal credit scoring methods described in this page address the problem. It is noted that internal credit scoring techniques can be applied to commercial credits as well.
Credit Risk Analysis and Modeling
In this page, the following credit risk analysis methods are described;
Hotspot Profiling of Risky Credit Segments
Credit risk profiling (finance risk profiling) is very important. The Pareto principle suggests that 80%~90% of the credit defaults may come from 10%~20% of the lending segments. Profiling the segments can reveal useful information for credit risk management. Credit providers often collect a vast amount of information on credit users. Information on credit users (or borrowers) often consists of dozens or even hundreds of variables, involving both categorical and numerical data with noisy information. Hotspot profiling is to identify factors or variables that best summarize the segments.
Fortunately, this problem can be overcome with Hotspot Profiling Analysis Software Tools. Hotspot profiling analysis drills-down data systematically and detects important relationships, co-factors, interactions, dependencies and associations amongst many variables and values accurately using Artificial Intelligence techniques, and generate profiles of most interesting segments. Hotspot analysis can identify profiles of high (and low) risk loans accurately through thorough systematic analysis of all available data. The followings are examples of hotspot profiling applied to credit information.
Finance risk factor hotspot profiling examples
Finance risk factor profiles can be easily developed with CMSR Data Miner. The followings describe how CMSR hotspot analysis tools can be used in developing profiles.
[Example 1] A financing firm (or bank) keeps loan records on motor vehicle purchase in its database including default information: gender, age, education, occupation, income; vehicle type, manufacturer, model, year make, price, loan amount, default, default amount, etc. The firm wishes to know which types of loans for motor vehicle purchases are at the highest risk, i.e., highest default ratio by probability;
[Example 2] For the same data, the bank wishes to know which types of loans for motor vehicle purchases are at the lowest risk in terms of lowest average default amounts;
Credit Risk Predictive Modeling
If past is any guide for predicting future events, predictive modeling is an excellent technique for credit risk management. Predictive models are developed from past historical records of credit loans, containing financial, demographic, psychographic, geographic information, etc. From the past credit information, predictive models can learn patterns of different credit default ratios, and can be used to predict risk levels of future credit loans. It is important to note that statistical process requires a substantially large number of past historical records (or customer loans) containing useful information. Useful information is something that can be a factor that differentially affects credit default ratios.
Credit Risk Predictive Modeling Software Tools
CMSR Data Miner supports robust easy-to-use predictive modeling tools. Users can develop models with the help of intuitive model visualization tools. Application and deployment of credit risk models is also very simple. CMSR supports the following predictive modeling tools;
Internal Credit Scoring
(Internal) credit score is a numerical rating of credit loans. It measures the level of risk of being defaulted. The level of default risk can be best predicted with predictive modeling. Credit scores can be measured in term of default probability or relative numerical ratings. The following subsections outline several credit scoring methods;
Method 1: Predicting default probability
Decision tree divides customer loan segments into smaller sub segments recursively. At each segment, splitting is made in a way that boosts proportions of either defaulted loans or fully-recovered loans, in each resulting sub segment. This process repeats until no further improvement can be made.
The above figure shows CMSR decision tree. Customer loan segments are partitioned recursively in a way that increases the proportion of either defaulted or fully-recovered loans. In the figure, reds represent defaulted loan portions and greens for fully-recovered loans. Nodes in red indicate that over 50% customers of the segments have defaulted loans. Green nodes have less than 50% of defaulted customers.
For new loan applications, when customer's information is applied to the tree, it will normally lead to a terminal node segment. The default ratio of the node is used as the credit score of the customer. If the segment has 35% default ratio in the past, the score will be 35% (or 0.35). For more information, please read Decision Tree Software.
Method 2: Predicting relative default risk level
Tree-based credit scoring provides coarse level prediction. It lacks the accuracy that neural network models can produce. Neural Network is a very powerful predictive modeling technique. Neural network is derived from animal nerve systems (e.g., human brains). The heart of the technique is (artificial) neural network. Neural networks can learn to predict in detail with high accuracy. The following shows the neural network module of CMSR;
Neural network works differently from decision tree. It can be trained to predict either relative default levels or expected default amounts. When the former is used, network will predict relative level of credit defaults. The latter will predict expected default amounts. The followings are histograms, showing distribution of credit scores predicted by a neural network credit scoring model. Note that reds are credit loans defaulted. Greens represent credit loans fully recovered. Clearly, the neural network model predicts default loans with higher scores and loans fully-recovered with lower scores. Analyzing distribution of scores, default probability may be deduced.
Method 3: Combining Models using RME
Single predictive models have limitations. Combining multiple models can produce better outcome. RME (Rule-based Model Evaluation) can combine predictions of multiple predictive models. Combined output may include minimum, maximum, average predictions, etc. In addition, models can be conditionally applied in RME.
Does Predictive Modeling Work?
Effectiveness of predictive modeling depends on the quality of historical data. If historical data contains information that can predict customer tendencies and behaviors, predictive modeling can be effective. Otherwise reliable predictive models will be difficult to obtain. How can you know whether your customer data contain predictive information? You need to do variable relevancy analysis and build models and test. We provide one year free license so that you can try out. Please find downloads from CMSR Data Miner.
For more on predictive modeling, please read The Cookbook on Predictive Modeling.
For more on insurance, please read Insurance Risk Analysis and Predictive Modeling.
For information about software used here, please read Data Mining Software. Software download is available from the page.
For information about predictive modeling, please read Predictive Modeling Software Tools.